Sunday, February 21, 2010

MNRG Finals outlook 2010: by the numbers

Two bouts remain in the Minnesota RollerGirls season.  The results from March's bout will determine who will compete to raise the coveted Golden Skate (currently held by back-to-back winners, the Rockits) and who will play for third.  Right now, no team has confirmed their berth in the season championships...though two teams definitely have the edge right now.

For those unaware, the MNRG send the top two teams forward to the finals.  In the case of a tie in W-L, the team with the top overall point differential (points scored on opponents - points allowed) gets the spot.  Looking only at the numbers - the win-loss record and the points, not the personalities or the relative strengths of the teams - this is what your MNRG home teams must do to secure a spot at the jammer line for April's championship match for the Golden Skate.

The teams:
1st: Atomic Bombshells (2-0) - point differential: +27
2nd: Rockits (1-1) - point differential: +73
3rd: Garda Belts (1-1) - point differential: -66
4th: Dagger Dolls (0-2) - point differential: -34

The bouts in March:
Atomic Bombshells v Garda Belts
Rockits v Dagger Dolls

The Atomic Bombshells:
The Atomic Bombshells must win or lose by less than 47 points to the Gardas.  That's all; the outcome of the Dagger Dolls/Rockits game does not deter their path to the championship at all.  A win or a small loss is all the Bombshells need to move forward.  In fact, if the Rockits lose, the Bombshells go matter the outcome of the ABS/GB match.

The Rockits:
The women in red had an appointment with defeat at the hands of the Bombshells, but a 75-point Rockit launch on the Gardas placed the Rockits well and above every other team in terms of point differential. To advance, the Rockitshave a simple formula for success; win that bout.  With one more win, the massive point differential carries them to the finals.

If they lose, things get a little more dicey.  Should the Gardas beat the Bombshells, the Rockits play in the third place bout.  If the reverse is true, the Rockits will still move forward...unless they are beaten by the Dolls by more than 54 points.

The Garda Belts:
The Gardas need a little more help.  To have a shot at advancement, they must win; their point differential will guarantee that they will be in third or worse place otherwise.  If the Rockits lose, the Gardas are in.  If the Rockits win, the Gardas must not just defeat the Bombshells, but beat them by 47 or more points.

The Dagger Dolls:
The Dollys need significant help to move forward, but they are not statistically out.  Dolly fans, here's the scenario you need to see your Dolls in the finals.  The ABS must win, and the Dollys must defeat the 54 or more points.  No other scenario will propel the Dolls forward.

As a bonus, here are your finals scenarios:
ABS win, Rockits win:
Bombshells v Rockits

ABS win, Dollys win by 53 or less:
Bombshells v Rockits

ABS win, Dollys win by 54 or more:
Bombshells v Dagger Dolls

Garda Belts win, Dolls win:
Bombshells v Garda Belts

Garda Belts win by 46 or less, Rockits win
Bombshells v Rockits

Gardas Belts win by 47 or more, Rockits win
Garda Belts v Rockits

So there you go, derby fans.  The cold, hard numbers.  Now, get your tickets to the March bout, dress in your team's colors, and cheer your head off.  The underdogs are fishing for upsets; make sure you see every jam.

Writing from the exact geographical center of roller derby today,
-Garrison Killer

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